Last May the Lebanese government foresaw a series of reforms and a debt restructuring in an attempt to get a USD 10 billion IMF credit. The success of the new plan of the government of Lebanon to rescue the economy of the Arab country depends on the credit that the International Monetary Fund grants it and on the financial support that it can obtain abroad.
This economic plan as a measure of despair, approved on April 19 by the government of Prime Minister Hassan Diab, which was formed thanks to the support of the Shiite group Hezbollah and its allies in Parliament. This plan foresees a series of reforms and debt restructuring in a forced attempt to convince the international community to help financially and obtain a loan from the IMF.
After three tedious days of popular protests protesting the unemployment created by the measures affected due to the coronavirus pandemic, and the shortage caused by the depreciation of the national currency, the government decreed the plan.
According to scholars, the Lebanese government has come to the IMF with its hands tied, so it really will not be easy for it to get the financial support it seeks. Many economists assume that the government has to win back the confidence of the people through infrastructure services and finance the private sector in order to boost the economy if it wants to save the country from the crisis.
In addition to this, it is known that the international community is not in favor of the bankruptcy of the country, however, many assure the great probability that the countries that are willing to help, want to impose their individual conditions in any case.
Since May, there has been a surge in the economic crisis, so Lebanon needs more help from its friends. This crisis has led to the Lebanese today not being able to access their deposits in the corresponding banks and is fighting against the rise of the USD on the black market.
The Lebanese economy has a very fragile structure in terms of political divisions based on various religions and sects, and has experienced the greatest crisis since the civil war between 1975 and 1990. Within the same worrying context, the local currency, the lira Lebanese continues to lose value on the black market, despite the central bank maintaining the stable rate.
While the plan established by the government does not take a start date to be implemented and begin to see its fruits, protests continue in the Lebanese capital of Beirut and in Tripoli against the economic crisis they are experiencing. The crowds shout their demands to prosecute the corrupt, return the country’s smuggled money, and change the regime.
What many scholars have predicted for the coming months in terms of the economy is one more drop in the local currency against the US dollar, which bears the high probability coupled with the current health pandemic, a possibility of more protests and burning streets for this harsh reality. Since the protesters announced that they will not leave the streets until their requests are fulfilled, what is most worrying is watching the tornado of the economic crisis unite with the pandemic tornado that the country is experiencing, which could provoke a finally unstoppable crisis towards chaos.